Steel fell sharply during the hottest period. Will

Futures steel fell sharply. Should the market price of steel fall sharply?

Abstract: after the holiday, black series commodity futures continued to fall, and all varieties have been adjusted to near the previous low. The long and short competition is more intense. Steel billets and strip steels returned their gains during the festival in two days. Affected by this, the market price turned from strong to weak. Today, the spot price of most varieties fell

after the holiday, the black series commodity futures continued to fall, and all varieties have been adjusted to near the top low, with fierce long short competition. Steel billets and strip steels returned their gains during the festival in two days. Affected by this, the market price turned from strong to weak. Today, the spot price of most varieties fell. At present, the business mentality is unstable. Let's have a look! On the one hand, it takes time to digest the arrival in the middle of the festival. On the other hand, it is slightly worried about the resources in transit. Today, the overall demand is significantly worse, and the price reduction and shipment of merchants have not been effective. It is expected that the domestic steel price will show a weak adjustment trend tomorrow

today's focus

macro hot spots

1. [black series futures closed down, and the main coke closed down 5.6%] rebar fell 4.8%, hot coil fell 4.5%, coking coal, Zhengzhou coal and Shanghai lead fell more than 2%, iron ore fell 2%, Shanghai zinc fell more than 1%, Shanghai aluminum, Shanghai tin, Shanghai copper, manganese silicon, rubber and Shanghai gold closed down. Glass rose by 3.8%, sugar rose by 1%, Shanghai nickel, ferrosilicon, eggs, Zheng cotton harvest rose

2. [the market strengthened unilaterally in the afternoon, and the medical device sector set off a rising tide]

3. [revision of the securities issuance measures: at least 40% of the offline placement is allocated to social security, etc.]

4. [the central parity rate of RMB rose by 220 points, ending six consecutive declines]

the national billet market price fell sharply. Tangshan Steel Billet drop, Shandong drop 100 yuan/ton. Shanxi fell by 30 yuan/ton, while other regions remained stable temporarily. In early trading today, Tangshan Steel Billet direct delivery transaction was weak, and there was a transaction at a low price for the warehouse spot price of yuan/ton, including tax; Individual transactions of downstream finished materials can be made, but the overall shipment is poor, and the market is mainly wait-and-see. In the afternoon, the billet is reduced by yuan/ton. Now the PUC 150 billet is reported at yuan/ton, 165 rectangular billet is reported at yuan/ton, 20MnSi billet is reported at yuan/ton, and the cash leaves the factory with tax

the market in the main production areas of domestic mines remained stable as a whole. Prices in North China are temporarily stable. Tangshan 66% dry base tax cash ex factory yuan/ton, Qianxi 66% dry base tax cash ex factory yuan/ton, Qian'an 66% dry base tax cash ex factory yuan/ton; Zunhua 66% dry basis tax included cash ex factory yuan/ton

the quotation of traders in the imported ore market in the morning was weaker than yesterday, and the market was affected by environmental protection and production restriction, and the overall mood was cold. In terms of steel mills, after the festival, the inventory was low and the purchasing sentiment was strong, but due to the rainy weather, the finished product shipment was not smooth, the price continued to fall, and the purchasing sentiment was suppressed. In addition, the billet fell by 60 in the afternoon, the steel mills were mostly conservative, the market transaction was slightly light, and the transaction price continued to weaken

steel spot

construction steel: today, domestic construction steel prices are slightly loose. In terms of specific prices, the average price of 35 major cities across the country was 4134 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan/ton from yesterday. Among them, the high prices in East China, North China, southwest and central China fell, while the prices in South China and Northeast China remained stable. In terms of the specific market, the spot prices in various places rose sharply after the holiday, but from the feedback, the high-level transaction was poor, and the main force of futures snails surged and fell sharply, so the spot sentiment was significantly weakened, and the quotations of merchants were significantly reduced today. At present, the procurement demand is obviously cold, and the market mentality is poor. It is expected that the domestic construction steel will continue to operate in a weak position tomorrow

hot rolled coil: today, the hot-rolled price in 24 major cities across the country fell weakly. The national average price of 3.0 hot-rolled coil was 4257 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day, and the national average price of 4.75 hot-rolled coil was 4200 yuan/ton, down 52 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. Today, the price of futures market fell sharply, the mentality of spot market was frustrated, and the quotation of merchants fell weakly. As the market price rose too fast yesterday, it was difficult for downstream users to accept it, and the overall market transaction was poor. Today, with the decline of futures, the market wait-and-see mood increased, and merchants were forced by the pressure of trading, and their willingness to reduce prices and promote sales increased. In the afternoon, the market price of steel billet fell by 70 yuan/ton, and the current price of carbon billet is 3500 yuan/ton. On the whole, it is expected that the price fluctuation of hot rolling market will be weak tomorrow

medium and heavy plate: today, the domestic medium and heavy plate market price volatility is weakening. The average price of 20mm medium and heavy plate in 23 major cities across the country is 4187 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The transaction in the morning market was poor. Driven by the weakness of futures, the spot fell after rising. On the other hand, at present, the spot inventory in most regions has increased significantly, and the main operation of traders is to reduce inventory and ship goods. In addition, the billet price has fallen again today. Therefore, it is expected that the domestic medium and heavy plate market price will be dominated by consolidation and weakening tomorrow

cold rolled sheet and coil: today, the national cold rolling price fell as a whole. Price: 1.0 the national average cold rolling price is 4730 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan/ton from the previous working day. In terms of main market prices: the lime in 4.1 above should comply with the relevant provisions in jc/t 621. The quotation of 1.0mm WISCO coil in the sea market is 4620 yuan/ton, the quotation of 1.0mm Angang coil in Guangzhou market is 4730, and the quotation of 1.0mm Angang Tiantie coil in Tianjin market is 4500 tons. In terms of market: today's market transaction is general. Driven by futures, the price has dropped significantly. In some cities, inventories are high, businesses mainly ship goods, and the rise is weak. It is expected that the cold rolling price will be mainly stable and weakening tomorrow

profile: today, the market price of domestic section steel fell slightly, the market transaction was less than expected, and the mentality of traders also weakened. At present, there is no pressure on the upstream production enterprises to reduce the inventory temporarily, and it is difficult to relax the price support mentality after the holiday. However, judging from the continued weakness of futures and the decline of steel billets today, rapid shipment and inventory reduction may become the mainstream operation in the market in the short term. In addition, according to the market feedback, the resources set before the festival have not been put into storage, and there will still be centralized arrival of resources in the future. Therefore, it is expected that the market price of section steel will be weak and stable in the short term, and the price will be recoiled after the resources are properly digested

steel pipe: today, the domestic steel pipe market price is basically stable. The national average price of 4-inch 3.75mm welded pipe was 4407 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; The national average price of 4-inch 3.75mm galvanized pipe was 5086 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; The national average price of seamless pipe 108*4.5mm was 5488 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. In terms of pipe factories, the ex factory prices of Tianjin Youfa and Lida were reduced by 60 yuan/ton, and Tianjin Juncheng was reduced by 30 yuan/ton; The hot rolling quotation of Linyi mainstream seamless pipe factory is 5250 yuan/ton. In the welded pipe and galvanized pipe market, the market turnover is general, the pipe factory reduces the price, the market is relatively volatile, and the quotation of traders is chaotic. In terms of seamless pipes, the market transaction was cold. Affected by the raw material end, the pipe factory raised the price of 170 key projects with a total planned investment of 40.6 billion yuan, and the market acceptance was low. It is expected that the steel pipe market price may fluctuate and consolidate tomorrow

hardness

Futures: domestic black series commodity futures fell sharply across the board, with large trading volume, and the main force increased its positions significantly. Among them, iron ore fell less, while other varieties fell sharply. Today's trend continued yesterday's diving market, and continued to dip sharply. Intraday bull resistance was slightly weak, and the overall operation was in the short range. From a technical point of view, taking futures snails as an example, the night market continued to decline weakly, breaking the 5-day and 10 day lines. In early trading, after the snail rebound failed to hit the 5th and 10th lines, it went all the way down; In the afternoon, it was still weak and volatile. The main force continued to increase its positions, and the transaction volume increased. There was still a slight dive in the late trading. From the perspective of the daily line, the futures snail closed at the bareheaded and barefoot great Yin line today, and the main force increased its positions sharply and fell. It is expected that there is room for further exploration in the night market. In terms of operation, it is still recommended to pay attention to the gains and losses of the 3500 level. In the short trend, be cautious about going long, and it is recommended to go short on the high and pay attention to the position