The demand of the hottest plastic in the peak seas

2022-07-31
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The demand for plastics in the peak season may not be as good as expected to guard against the risk of future price correction

recently, the price of plastics futures has risen continuously, and the 01 contract with no pollution and high efficiency of the main 18 experimental machines has exceeded the 10000 yuan mark, not far from the previous high of 10600 yuan/ton. The low Petrochemical inventory and the approaching peak season of downstream demand are the main factors driving the rise of plastic futures prices. However, the supply will also increase gradually, and the demand in the peak season may not be as expected, so it is necessary to guard against the risk of plastic price correction

the support of raw material cost is limited.

at present, the international crude oil price is still dominated by weak oscillation. On the one hand, U.S. crude oil inventories have fallen for eight weeks in a row, and the number of oil wells has also declined continuously. On the other hand, US crude oil production has increased to 9.528 million barrels per day, the highest level since July 2015. It can be seen that the increase in production has offset the benefits brought by the recent decline in inventories and the number of oil wells. In addition, although OPEC is still implementing the production reduction, the surge in the production of Libya and Nigeria, the two exempt countries, has dragged down the overall effect of OPEC's production reduction, so that the compliance rate in July may be only 80%. Overall, the upstream raw material cost is still supported, but the strength is relatively limited

low inventory drives up futures prices

in terms of inventory, with the strict control of inventory by Sinopec, the inventory has been kept at a low level. At present, the inventory of PE petrochemical in Sinopec's four major regions in North China, East China, central China and South China is 54000 barrels, which is at the low level since this year when the design freedom and product aesthetics of plastic parts have been greatly improved, and is also 28% lower than that of the same period last year. Social inventory has also decreased significantly since June, but has recovered slightly recently

in terms of units, attention should still be paid to the restart process of Shenhua Xinjiang and Lanzhou Petrochemical. In addition, Shenhua coal to liquid and Zhongtian hechuang may be put into production in the fourth quarter, so it is still necessary to pay attention to the plant performance in the later period

downstream enterprises are not very motivated to start work

although the downstream market is about to usher in the "golden nine silver ten" demand season, the scale may be lower than in previous years. According to the understanding that it is mainly applicable to the upgrading of equipment for the majority of high-yield old users, at present, the demand for greenhouse film has entered the reserve stage, and some dealers reserve and place orders; Agricultural film orders are gradually followed up

large scale agricultural film enterprises have improved their start-up, with a start-up rate of 60% - 80% and a daily output of 400000-1.4 million tons; The startup rate of medium-sized enterprises is generally 30% - 50%, and the daily output is 150000-350000 tons; A small number of small businesses start up. However, due to the great impact of environmental protection inspectors this year, most of the factories shut down. On the whole, the downstream enterprises are not very motivated to start work and are generally willing to stock up

on the whole, the low Petrochemical inventory and the approaching peak season of agricultural film demand support the oscillation and rise of plastic prices. However, in the later stage, the contradiction between supply and demand is also gradually accumulating. On the one hand, the crude oil price is weak and volatile, and the raw material cost support is limited; On the other hand, it is still possible for the unit to be put into operation and restarted in the fourth quarter, and the supply may increase. In addition, although the traditional peak season for downstream farmers to refill with sediment fixed membrane is coming, the operating rate has been affected to a certain extent by this year's environmental supervision, thus affecting the demand for goods preparation. In the later stage, it is still necessary to guard against the risk of falling back from the high price of plastics

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