How should the packaging and printing industry dea

2022-08-14
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How should the packaging and printing industry cope with the strong clearance of national waste by large paper mills

it's a place of decline and decay, and things have gone away. Only the Yangtze River flows eastward without words. This timeless famous sentence is appropriate to describe the panic of everyone under the current decline of the packaging and printing industry

what's more sad is that if the power is suddenly cut off halfway, on the one hand, downstream customers continue to press for price reduction; On the other hand, the upstream big paper mills jointly raised the price of national waste, with the intention of raising the price to inventory. Reduce the price. If the paper price really rises, it will be over! If you don't reduce the price, the order will be robbed every minute, and it will end sooner or later

it's like gambling to do some packaging. This business is really impossible

since the Spring Festival, the packaging and printing market has been like a person with a bad stomach. Orders have been getting thinner and thinner, bleak to shivering. With the continued power of tiegongji and the increasingly distant economic and trade relations between China and the United States, there is no date for this downward trend to stop falling and recover. Affected by this, raw materials such as base paper, plastic film and metal packaging materials have fallen endlessly

in desperation, large paper mills facing huge inventory pressure began to use the self exploding means of increasing the national waste and reducing the price of paper, so as to eliminate the production capacity of small and medium-sized paper mills and realize the purpose of destocking. In recent days, waste paper has been rising all the way. At present, the initial price has risen from 2200 to 2500 before the construction of each pier and abutment. According to the previous 2200 waste paper and 3300 base paper prices, small and medium-sized paper mills have been at a loss. Small and medium-sized paper mills were cleared out, and there was basically no suspense

the approval of foreign waste plummeted, and nine dragons rose repeatedly

let's follow the group data first:

Taicang Nine Dragons fell by 230 from March to mid April, and rose by 50 on April 25

Tianjin Nine Dragons fell 230 from March to mid April, and rose twice on April 13 and 25, rising 100

Hebei Jiulong fell by 150 from March to mid April, and rose twice on April 13 and 25, rising by 100

Shenyang Nine Dragons fell by 200 from March to mid April, and rose by 150 on April 13, April 21 and April 25 for three consecutive times

Sichuan nine dragons fell by 190 from March to mid April, and rose by 100 on April 16 and April 25

Chongqing nine dragons fell 160 from March to mid April, and rose twice on April 20 and April 25, with a cumulative increase of 80

under the condition that the market demand continues to shrink, the behavior of big paper mills to bid up national waste is naturally interpreted with conspiracy theory: big factories with the pricing power of national waste force small factories to follow up by raising the price of national waste, and then use the advantage of low-cost foreign waste to share the cost and squeeze the profits of small paper mills. In the long run, small paper mills can only close down, Then it will be the world of Dachang

then, will the paper mill soon regain its pricing power and return to the strong position of taking whatever it wants in? In my opinion, this situation is almost impossible in the short term

in the past three years, the market demand for packaging paper is shrinking at an incredible rate. A set of conjecture data that cannot be proved false or true was made: the domestic consumption of corrugated paper and carton board was 46million tons in 2016; In 2017, the estimated actual demand fell by 15%, and the consumption of packaging paper fell to 39 million tons; In 2018, the output of cartons decreased by 28%. In the fourth quarter, although there were favorable factors such as export order overdraft, e-commerce Festival, Spring Festival stock and so on, orders were surprisingly flat. If calculated by a 28% decline, the demand for repackaging paper for engineering structures and equipment in 2018 may have fallen to 28million tons. And nine dragons, Levin, Shanying and other three leading packaging paper enterprises have a total capacity of 30.68 million tons, which is not enough for three major factories

considering the influx of a large number of imported base papers some time ago, the problem of insufficient foreign waste approvals has been greatly offset. The reduction of market demand is faster than the reduction of packaging paper production. Therefore, it is difficult to change the situation of oversupply of packaging paper in the short term

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